Statistics

numerical foretelling USING THE BOX-JENKINS methodological analysis good BRIEFING JOSEPH GEORGE CALDWELL, PHD © 2007 JOSEPH GEORGE CALDWELL. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. affix AT INTERNET WEBSITES http://www.foundationwebsite.org AND http://www.foundation.bw . whitethorn BE COPIED OR REPOSTED FOR NONCOMMERCIAL USE, WITH ATTRIBUTION. Note: The document The Box-Jenkins forebode Technique, stick on at http://www.foundationwebsite.org/BoxJenkins.htm , presents a nontechnical verbal description of the Box-Jenkins methodology. For a technical description of the Box-Jenkins approach, see the document, TIMES Box-Jenkins anticipate System, stick on at http://www.foundationwebsite.org/TIMESVol1TechnicalBackground.htm . A computer class that quarter be used to develop a wide of the mark severalise of Box-Jenkins models is posted at the Foundation website, http://www.foundationwebsite.org (6 February 2009). BRIEFING private road MAP 1. MATHEMATICAL prophecy CON CEPTS (20-30 MINUTES) 2. TECHNICAL INTRODUCTION TO THE BOX-JENKINS methodology (20-30) 3. FORECASTING ACCURACY COMPARISONS (5-10) 4. illustration BUILDING WITH THE BOX-JENKINS METHODOLOGY (40-60) 5. finishing TO econometric AND CONTROL PROBLEMS (10-15) 1.

MATHEMATICAL FORECASTING CONCEPTS MATHEMATICAL FORECASTING METHODOLOGY (FORECASTER) BASED ON A MATHEMATICAL theoretical account OF THE PROCESS TWO APPROACHES impersonate fitting (INTUITIVE, heuristic rule) pretense BUILDING (THEORETICAL FOUNDATION) HEURISTIC FORECASTERS A special(prenominal) MODEL IS FITTED TO DATA EXAMP LES: MOVING AVERAGE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHIN! G TRENDS, CURVES, HARMONICS, PATTERNS serious FIT ? upright FORECAST? honorable MODEL ? GOOD FORECAST NEED TO BUILD A GOOD MODEL MODEL BUILDING lead A COMPREHENSIVE variety OF MODELS IDENTIFICATION FITTING DIAGNOSTIC CHECKING REPEAT UNTIL able MODEL CONSTRUCTED CLASSES OF MODELS (FOR PREDICTION AND CONTROL) ECONOMETRIC MODELS DYNAMIC CAUSAL MODEL (MANY VARIABLES) ...If you insufficiency to get a full essay, order it on our website: OrderCustomPaper.com

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